The 12Z GFS forecast map of total precipitation amounts during the next ten days contains plenty of rainfall for just about all parts of the nation with the only exception being the Southwest US.
The 2024 season has been quite fortunate so far with only a limited number of postponements due to rain and/or snow, but that luck may take a hit during the next couple of weeks. The overall weather pattern that is setting up will likely result in much of the country receiving decent precipitation amounts as we head through the first couple of weeks of May. In fact, some sections of the country will be likely be hit with 2+ inches of rain including the nation’s heartland and also sections of the Pacific Northwest, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. The only relatively dry part of the nation during the first couple weeks of May will be the Southwest US which is the home territory of the Arizona Diamondbacks. The wet weather pattern can have a disrupting impact on numerous teams located in the middle of the nation as well as Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
This active and wet weather during the first couple weeks of May will feature severe weather outbreaks from time-to-time. On Thursday, May 2nd, the threat of severe weather will be highest in the nation’s mid-section from Texas to Minnesota.
The active weather pattern will no doubt contain some severe weather threats in coming days which is rather typical for the month of May when there continue to be some chilly air masses in Canada that drop south and east into the US creating clash zones in the atmosphere as warm, humid air flows north from the Gulf of Mexico. The chance for some severe thunderstorm activity on Thursday, May 2nd will be highest in the nation’s mid-section where copious amounts of rain will fall during the next ten days.
In terms of the Home Run Forecast Index, the wet weather pattern during the next ten days can produce mixed results. Om the one hand, higher HRFI values might develop given the expected higher relative humidity levels. On the other hand, copious amounts of clouds in a wet weather pattern can help to limit temperatures somewhat which tends to result in lower HRFI values.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian